Monday, June 09, 2008
Effects of Monsoon in india in 2008
Weather assistants working at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the South-West monsoon rains from June to October 2008 would be 99 percent of the long-term average, boding well for rainfed crops and offering some Succor the Government difficult to fight against inflation। The average rainfall in India is about 110-120 cm। Of these, 88-90 cm of rainfall is attributed to the south-west monsoon, which is received in North America, North-East, Central and west India. Rains in India varies widely from region to region '। While the states of North-East and coastal areas along the west are generally much higher than the average between June and October, parts of Rajasthan desert still less than 15 cm rainfall. The balance known as the North-East monsoon occurs between October and March। It is the main period of activity during rainy coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry. The IMB has used the statistical model to forecast rainfall in northern and central regions and a new statistical model being developed for South and the North-East. The predictions made by the two models were combined to develop rainfall is expected for the country as a whole. Derived from the Arabic word 'mousim "meaning season , monsoon rains is very important for farmers as well as India 'economy। Sanskrit word for rain is 'varsha ', which persists in hindi , 'Baris "or 'barsat ', and the rainy season is called 'varsha kala " or 'varsha ritu '. Nowhere else in the world, the rainy season is also clearly defined that in the Indian subcontinent. The Arabs knew the monsoon winds and used for their silk and spice trade with India. It is well established that SW monsoon sets on June 1 (give and take a few days on each side) on an average along the coast of Kerala, which records are available for the past several decades। But there are wide variations. In 1918, for example, the first rains of the monsoon SW came down on May 11, (21 days earlier than average), while in 1972 it began on June 18, (17 days later than average) . No one knows why. Although the basic science of the monsoon has been described 300 years ago, nobody has yet pieced together the entire mechanism of the South-West monsoon and its behaviour। There are too many variables on which man has no control Given the responsibility to issue an official forecasts, year after year, the best IMD can do is continue to refine its models without worrying about the real mechanisms that drive the monsoon and try to be correct 70 percent of the time . Even with the best model of extreme monsoon failure, should be considered as part of the inherent variability of the monsoon. T-reduce deforestation precipitation? This question has been haunting the minds of scientists from all these years। However, there is no clear answer. New prediction methods and technologies to predict the weather, are being developed in India and abroad, but with the sorts of variables, the future of the analysis of trends monsoon is likely to remain sometimes sunny and sometimes cloudy। Meteorologists investigate the expected effects of global warming (GW) and the resulting climate change on India 's monsoon pattern that India feel 's annual rainfall is likely to change and May lead severe droughts and intense flooding in parts of India। They predict that by the end of the 21st century, the country will experience a Level 3 to 5 degrees C temperature increase and an increase of 20% in all monsoon rains in summer. The effects vary from the flooding of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the flow of rivers largest India as the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Jamuna. Some of them are already visible.GW causes the melting of glaciers as gangotri glaciers in the Himalayas. -- The glacier-fed rivers north India first wave in the summer due to melting ice from the glacier, then shrink to dangerously low levels in winter due to lack of water. In the wake of floods this summer and causing soil erosion, India has already lost 31 square kilometres of the Sagar islands in the Sunderbans and others are underway, the displacement of thousands of people, with no where to go. Even in some islands of Andaman and Nicobar would not be spared.